Even today, we must build on previously published contributions about the lack of material and the constant rise in prices. Today we will stay only with aluminum. The long-awaited calming of the market situation is not coming and is not coming. Although manufacturers may have already had enough time to fully rebuild their reduced capacity pandemics, this has not been the case everywhere. This is for many reasons, the most recently being the lack of staff, especially experienced staff. And the production of aluminum or aluminum semi-finished products is not a completely simple technology and "making" a cook, metallurgist or rolling mill, for example, is neither easy nor fast. Of course, I don't want to dishonor a chef or any other profession, just as I don't want to highlight metallurgical or other professions. I just want to prove that this situation will not have a quick solution, because it is similar in many industries. What is annoying, however, is that even though the resumption of production in some companies has succeeded, it is far from enough to cover demand. We could theorize and speculate for long hours about why this is so and when the situation will calm down. The fact remains that there is still a shortage of aluminum semi-finished products and we do not see any likelihood of change in the near future. And with every shortcoming is an increase in the price of the little that is available. In addition to the rising price of metal on the LME (Metal Exchange), the so-called "reprocessing" is still growing, which is the value that the manufacturer charges to the mentioned price of the metal, and which includes all its costs and the required profit. This recast has increased by more than 100% since the beginning of the year and we do not see the end yet. The old, important factor in the creation of the total price has recently become the so-called "premium", which, although it existed before, was either stable or not very significant. The vast majority used to be "hidden" in the above-mentioned "reworking". Unfortunately, today it is neither insignificant nor stable. In the attached graph of development below, you can easily see how its amount has changed from the beginning of February to the present day. Unfortunately, this results not only in a direct increase in the price of material for immediate deliveries, but also in the failure to close the final price for future deliveries. Many suppliers today confirm future prices as "floating" with different variants of premium calculation. For example: "the price applies provided that the premium is not higher than…" or "the premium will be charged as an average of a defined future period". All this is further complicated by the new decision of the Russian authorities, which decided with effect from 1 August 2021 to impose on the export of primary Al an export duty of 15%. This duty will not only increase the cost of direct exports from local factories, but will indirectly increase the price of products of many other countries and companies that are either dependent on Russian Al, or like to "ride" the wave of price increases and improve their economy.
Závěr je bohužel jednoznačný. Nečekejme v nejbližší době ani stabilizaci cen, ani rychlou změnu v dostupnosti materiálu. Bude se dále zdražovat, a i nadále bude materiálu nedostatek.
Even today, we must build on previously published contributions about the lack of material and the constant rise in prices. Today we will stay only with aluminum. The long-awaited calming of the market situation is not coming and is not coming. Although manufacturers may have already had enough time to fully rebuild their reduced capacity pandemics, this has not been the case everywhere. This is for many reasons, the most recently being the lack of staff, especially experienced staff. And the production of aluminum or aluminum semi-finished products is not a completely simple technology and "making" a cook, metallurgist or rolling mill, for example, is neither easy nor fast. Of course, I don't want to dishonor a chef or any other profession, just as I don't want to highlight metallurgical or other professions. I just want to prove that this situation will not have a quick solution, because it is similar in many industries. What is annoying, however, is that even though the resumption of production in some companies has succeeded, it is far from enough to cover demand. We could theorize and speculate for long hours about why this is so and when the situation will calm down. The fact remains that there is still a shortage of aluminum semi-finished products and we do not see any likelihood of change in the near future. And with every shortcoming is an increase in the price of the little that is available. In addition to the rising price of metal on the LME (Metal Exchange), the so-called "reprocessing" is still growing, which is the value that the manufacturer charges to the mentioned price of the metal, and which includes all its costs and the required profit. This recast has increased by more than 100% since the beginning of the year and we do not see the end yet. The old, important factor in the creation of the total price has recently become the so-called "premium", which, although it existed before, was either stable or not very significant. The vast majority used to be "hidden" in the above-mentioned "reworking". Unfortunately, today it is neither insignificant nor stable. In the attached graph of development below, you can easily see how its amount has changed from the beginning of February to the present day. Unfortunately, this results not only in a direct increase in the price of material for immediate deliveries, but also in the failure to close the final price for future deliveries. Many suppliers today confirm future prices as "floating" with different variants of premium calculation. For example: "the price applies provided that the premium is not higher than…" or "the premium will be charged as an average of a defined future period". All this is further complicated by the new decision of the Russian authorities, which decided with effect from 1 August 2021 to impose on the export of primary Al an export duty of 15%. This duty will not only increase the cost of direct exports from local factories, but will indirectly increase the price of products of many other countries and companies that are either dependent on Russian Al, or like to "ride" the wave of price increases and improve their economy.
Závěr je bohužel jednoznačný. Nečekejme v nejbližší době ani stabilizaci cen, ani rychlou změnu v dostupnosti materiálu. Bude se dále zdražovat, a i nadále bude materiálu nedostatek.
